Analysis

GDPNow Goes Gangbusters

GDPNow as of today is 5.1% q/q AR for Q3: Figure 1: GDP (black), August Survey of Professional Forecasters (purple), GDPNow (light blue square), Goldman Sachs tracking (inverted chartreuse triangle),...

Betting on the Midterms

From Polymarket today, 3pm CT: The sharp deterioration in Republican odds for holding the Senate occurred almost immediately after the beginning of the US-Iran War. The first reversal between...

The Many Hypotheses of Why There Is an Avoidable Energy Crisis

From U.S. strategy and multipolar transitions to systemic shifts or human errors, these are some of the hypotheses behind the energy crisis

Fed Funds Expected Trajectory, and Other Rates

Here’s the CME’s Fedwatch implied path for the Fed funds rate as of noon CT today: Figure 1: Effective Fed funds (bold blue), 3 month Treasury yield (red), 10 year (green), 30 year (black), all...

Thursday assorted links

1. An American at Brazil’s largest rodeo. 2. Ingeborg Bachmann centenary. 3. “Huawei Technologies Co. predicted on Wednesday that global computing demand will surge 100,000-fold by 2035, with AI...

Money Creation Does Not Cause Inflation

An apparently needed debunking of well-disproven theories that assert that money supply growth generates inflation.

Using options prices to measure financial risk : The Kansas City Fed Policy Rate Skew

The takeaway The Kansas City Fed uses options prices to measure how financial markets perceive the balance of risks for future short-term interest rates: a.k.a., the KC Policy Rate Skew. The data...

Pandemic Preparation is AI Safety

I am not a big fan of the “now more than ever” post, which interprets recent events to support—surprise!—something the writer already believed. And yet…is it not obvious that AI risk increases the...

Links 9/17/2026